David Stearns' Pete Alonso gamble puts bow on strong Mets offseason

Take a bow, David Stearns.

Perhaps only Pete Alonso knows just how close Stearns came to losing the high-stakes game of chicken that he was playing with his slugging first baseman, which means the rest of us may never know for sure.

Was there ever a deal to be made with the Toronto Blue Jays? Or any other team? Alonso is almost certainly not going to want to offer much detail, especially since he wound up returning to the Mets on their terms -- a two-year deal for $54 million, as first reported by SNY’s Andy Martino.

In the end, however, it’s irrelevant. Stearns, with the blessings of Steve Cohen, was willing to take the gamble, determined not to overpay for what he saw as Alonso’s fair-market value, and it paid off perfectly.

That is, the Mets get Alonso’s power bat, which makes them a much more dangerous offensive team in 2025, without having to commit to the likelihood of long-term decline.

As such, Stearns continues to live up to his reputation for high baseball acumen since he arrived as President of Baseball Operations -- and someone willing to live by his evaluations.

Last year, remember, even with all of Mets-Land screaming for him to sign J.D. Martinez as a DH, Stearns waited and waited and waited, before finally signing him to a bargain contract in late March.

There was certainly more at stake this time. Without Alonso, the Mets' lineup was looking a bit light for a team trying to win a championship in 2025.

Indeed, in some ways, it didn’t seem to make sense to draw a hard line on Alonso after going all-out to sign Juan Soto. Even with the emergence of Mark Vientos last year as a power bat, the absence of Alonso in the middle of the lineup may well have set Soto up for a record number of walks in his first season in Queens.

Was Stearns really willing to bet that either Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña would blossom into an impact offensive player to make up at least in part for Alonso’s guaranteed 35-40 home runs?

Or was he betting instead that the lack of a market for Alonso, which became evident as other first basemen came off the board in December at relatively underwhelming prices, would leave the slugger little choice but to eventually take the Mets’ offer?

Again we’ll probably never know exactly what he was thinking -- only that he won the bet and likely completed a very strong offseason that gives the Mets a legitimate shot at winning a championship.

The only knock might be that Stearns didn’t do enough at the top end of the starting rotation, banking on Kodai Senga to bounce back from his lost 2024 season and Sean Manaea to build on his Chris Sale-like delivery that produced dominance.

I can understand not wanting to give out long-term deals for starting pitchers, but I thought Walker Buehler, who got a one-year deal with the Boston Red Sox, offered significantly more front-of-the-rotation potential than Frankie Montas.

Then again, who knows? Perhaps I’m underestimating David Peterson, who emerged as a quality starter last season, or even Clay Holmes, whose elite sinker and high velocity as a reliever could be a foundation for dominance as he transitions to become a starter.

Certainly, it’s fair to wonder if Stearns is counting too heavily on whatever magic his pitching lab worked with Manaea, Luis Severino, and even some of the relievers, thinking it can work on his new crop of pitchers in 2025.

In truth, though, Stearns clearly has earned the benefit of the doubt regarding his decision-making, especially in terms of evaluating pitching, an ability that helped him make a name for himself as GM of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Personally, I think he should find a way to bring back Jose Iglesias, not so much of the OMG vibe as the fact that he was a very valuable player with his brilliant defense and his clutch hitting.

But if he believes in Acuña and/or Mauricio as potential impact players, well, again, it’s awfully hard to argue with any evaluation Stearns makes right now. Throw Brandon Sproat into that mix as well, as a prospect who could blossom into a high-ceiling starting pitcher at some point in 2025.

At worst Stearns probably believes he’ll be able to add pitching at the trade deadline if necessary, with the benefit of another four months of baseball to decide which of his top prospects are keepers.

For now, what matters most is that the Mets have their much-needed thumper to hit behind Soto.

And while Alonso obviously didn’t get the long-term deal he was seeking, I’m not buying any notion that he’ll be negatively affected by hard feelings. This all started with him turning down that seven-year, $158 million offer in 2023 -- a pre-Stearns offer, you’ll recall.

Likewise, Alonso has only himself to blame for failing to deliver an Aaron Judge-like monster walk year in 2024, when he could have made it much more difficult for even Stearns not to give him a mega-deal.

Also, let’s not forget, that he’s making $30 million in 2025, a superstar AAV number, with the potential to opt out after the season or finish out the two-year on a $24 million salary in 2026.

So Alonso will be plenty motivated to have a huge season. His first press conference might be a bit awkward, as he faces questions about why he didn’t get the huge payday he wanted, but he’ll get past that. He’s still a Met, which is what he wanted, and he has to know that his presence is a big reason this team will believe it can win a championship.

After all, it’s not that Stearns didn’t want him back. It’s just that he and Cohen weren’t going to let Scott Boras dictate the terms on this one. Alonso isn’t Soto.

Maybe it got hairy there at the end. But in the end, Stearns made the right call. He’s done that a lot so far.